A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
